💸 When smart money becomes late money

Traditional investors share Jerome Powell's nickname "Too Late".

August 21, 2025

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BITCOIN BOX SCORE

Exchange Rate: $112,300
Market Capitalization: $2.24T
Hash Rate (90 days): 901.4 EH/s
Transactions (30 days): 12,870,166
Network Fees (economy): 2 sat/vB
Bitcoin Dominance: 59.48%

On the calendar of bitcoin holidays, today is marked Bitcoin Infinity Day. There is a popular saying that bitcoin’s ultimate price is “everything divided by 21 million,” which can be represented as:

∞ / 21,000,000

Because the date August 21st can be written as 8/21 and it kinda-sorta looks like the famous meme, bitcoiners found the perfect excuse to add a holiday to their calendars.

Yeah, it’s a little bit convoluted, but it’s a great way to get people thinking about what it means to have a form of money that is perfectly finite.

Bitcoin's ultimate destiny is to become the universal unit of account. One day, everything will be priced in sats. Yet we find ourselves in bitcoin's greatest paradox: explosive adoption alongside persistent early-stage dynamics.

While corporate treasuries accumulate bitcoin at record pace and sovereign states build strategic reserves, institutional "smart money" remains conspicuously absent. A recent Bank of America survey reveals that 75% of fund managers have zero bitcoin exposure, with the remaining quarter averaging just 0.3% allocation. Compare this to gold's 48% adoption rate among the same cohort at 2.2% average allocation.

"For the first 15 years of bitcoin's existence, the career risk was being allocated to it at all," notes the analysis. "We are now firmly living in a period where that career risk has flipped."

This institutional hesitation explains why retail investors still drive much of bitcoin's price discovery through ETFs. But as bitcoin transitions from speculative asset to monetary standard – when all value gets measured in satoshis rather than depreciating fiat – these laggards face infinite opportunity cost.

For once, the smart money isn't early. It’s late.

NEWS

India launches first bitcoin think tank on Independence Day

The Bitcoin Policy Institute of India (BPI India) launched on August 15, 2025, deliberately choosing India's Independence Day to emphasize the connection between national sovereignty and financial freedom. The think tank will advocate for bitcoin as a strategic tool to secure India's economic future through data-driven research and education for policymakers, regulators, and citizens.

Five pillars for bitcoin adoption

BPI India's approach centers on converting renewable energy into bitcoin through state-level mining initiatives, advocating for clear regulatory frameworks, building the case for bitcoin as a treasury asset, demystifying bitcoin for the public, and accelerating Lightning Network payments. This comprehensive strategy positions India to potentially lead rather than simply participate in the global bitcoin monetary standard.

Harvard's Rogoff and Nobel winner Krugman double down on bitcoin ignorance

Kenneth Rogoff issued a half-hearted apology this week for his 2018 prediction that bitcoin would collapse, but blamed Trump and criminals for his error rather than acknowledging bitcoin's fundamental value proposition. Meanwhile, Paul Krugman celebrated Brazil's government-run Pix payment system while dismissing bitcoin, comparing the 93% Pix adoption rate to bitcoin's 2% payment usage in America as evidence of bitcoin's failure.

Elite academic delusion syndrome strikes again

Both economists miss one of bitcoin's primary benefits: offering financial sovereignty outside state control systems. Rogoff ignored bitcoin's 12x price increase that took place since his prediction of doom, while Krugman celebrates the very government payment monopoly that validates bitcoin's necessity. Krugman’s comparison of voluntary bitcoin adoption to state-mandated Pix usage reveals a fundamental misalignment of values that is emblematic of academic economics, which has become a den of apologists for human rights abusers and the machinations of an unelected global elite.

Wyoming launches state-backed stablecoin

Wyoming's Stable Token Commission launched the Frontier Stable Token (FRNT) on mainnet across seven blockchains including Ethereum, Solana, and Arbitrum, making Wyoming the first U.S. state to issue its own stablecoin. The token is fully collateralized by short-duration Treasury bills and dollars with a 102% reserve requirement, and will be accepted anywhere Visa is used through Apple Pay, Google Pay, and physical cards.

A nice start

Governor Mark Gordon emphasized that FRNT will "empower citizens and businesses with a modern, efficient, and secure means of transacting in the digital age," with potential applications from vendor payments to tax refunds and social benefits.

State-level stablecoins are a creative "first step" toward all of finance happening on (or on top of) the bitcoin network – where it belongs.

X launches native bitcoin tipping powered by Lightspark's Spark protocol

BitBit announced the first self-custodial bitcoin tipping solution for X (formerly Twitter), allowing users to send bitcoin tips directly through their browser without requiring recipients to have an existing wallet. The integration uses Lightspark's Spark protocol, which eliminates Lightning Network complexity while maintaining bitcoin's open and neutral payment infrastructure, with tips tied to X usernames and a 21-day window for recipients to claim payments.

Social media meets sound money

BitBit CEO Felipe Servin noted the importance of "meeting people where they are" rather than forcing adoption of new technologies, with X's 500 million users representing an ideal testing ground for mainstream bitcoin payments. This self-custodial approach marks a significant upgrade from X's previous custodial tipping options, demonstrating how bitcoin can seamlessly integrate into existing social platforms where financial conversations already flourish.

BITCOIN ADOPTION CONTINUES

KindlyMD purchased 5,744 bitcoins for $679 million at an average price of $118,205 per coin, bringing its total holdings to 5,765 coins as part of its ambitious plan to accumulate one million bitcoins following its merger with Nakamoto Holdings.

HOW BITCOIN WORKS

Learn one key idea about bitcoin each week. This week:

On Ancient Bitcoins

Fidelity Digital Assets recently published another of their excellent research pieces, with this one highlighting a little known phenomenon. For the first time in bitcoin's history, "ancient supply" – bitcoin that hasn't moved for 10 years or more – is accumulating faster than new bitcoin are being created.

Ancient supply refers to bitcoin held by the most convicted long-term holders. These are coins that have remained untouched for over a decade, sitting dormant in wallets since bitcoin's early years. This metric captures the behavior of bitcoin's most patient believers, including Satoshi Nakamoto's estimated one million bitcoins.

The milestone is remarkable because an average of 566 bitcoin per day now falls into ancient supply, compared to bitcoin's current daily issuance rate of just 450 coins. This means ultra long-term holders are effectively removing more bitcoin from circulation each day than miners are creating.

As of June 2025, ancient supply accounts for over 17% of bitcoin's total issued supply, valued at approximately $360 billion. Unlike traditional assets that can increase production to meet demand, bitcoin's scarcity becomes more pronounced as conviction deepens.

While some ancient supply occasionally moves during major price rallies, suggesting even the highest-conviction holders sometimes take profits, the overall trend shows growing confidence in bitcoin's long-term value proposition. Fidelity projects that ancient supply could reach 20% of total bitcoin by 2028 and 25% by 2034.

This development underscores that as adoption grows, the available supply decreases, potentially amplifying the price response to increasing demand.

COIN CHECK

What is a stablecoin?

A. A type of cryptocurrency that always increases in value
B. A digital token pegged to a stable asset like the US dollar
C. Bitcoin held in a government reserve fund
D. A coin that cannot be transferred or spent

Check your answer at the end of the page.

FROM THE MEME POOL

ANSWER

(B) A digital token pegged to a stable asset like the US dollar

A stablecoin is a type of digital token designed to maintain a fixed value by being pegged to a stable reference, such as the U.S. dollar, euro, or even commodities like gold. The goal is to minimize volatility while allowing people to benefit from the speed and flexibility of cryptocurrency. Stablecoins are often used for trading, payments, and remittances because they provide price stability in digital form. However, they rely on trust in the issuer’s reserves or algorithmic mechanisms to actually stay “stable” – so even though their purchasing power may not fluctuate as much as bitcoin’s does, they tend to be less stable than bitcoin over long time frames.

That’s all for this week, folks! When you signed up for this newsletter, we promised to act as your personal guide and help you understand what’s happening in the world of bitcoin. What did you think of today’s newsletter? Reply to this email and let us know what you’d like to see more of.

Until next week!

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