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BITCOIN BOX SCORE

Exchange Rate: $57,870
Market Capitalization: $1.14T
Hash Rate (90 days): 601.4 EH/s
Transactions (30 days): 17,523,465
Network Fees (economy): 6 sat/vB
Bitcoin Dominance: 54.79%

What do these numbers mean?

In the run up to last week's presidential debate, Americans had low confidence in institutions. The debate did nothing to change that. In the aftermath, many are shocked about the state of the country’s leadership.

Many will spend July 4th wondering if the sitting President can finish his term.

Although America is in a rough spot, some things haven't changed. The American Dream – the idea that anyone can succeed through hard work and a bit of luck – still endures, as evidenced by the millions of people who continue to immigrate to the U.S. in search of that dream.

Like the American Dream, bitcoin means different things to different people. Some think it will replace the dollar system. Others believe it will complement the dollar’s role in global finance. Still others care only about “number go up” – that the exchange rate of bitcoin continues to reliably rise in the long term.

Fundamentally, however, bitcoin and the American Dream are about freedom – freedom from manipulation, oppression, and cronyism, with the promise that if you put in the work, you will be rewarded.

Happy 4th!

NEWS

Is an inflationary recession already here?

Economist Peter St. Onge asks an important question: "Have we already entered recession? Worse, have we been in a recession for years now?"

St. Onge claims the key is looking beyond the "official" economic data presented by the media – which, he alleges, if incorrect, could mean we have been severely misled about the health of the economy:

“To give a flavor, the official inflation rate since Covid has been around 21%. But fast food menu prices -- a go-to indicator for Foreign exchange investors -- are up between 35% and 50%. People posting grocery receipts online say it's actually more than 50%. The problem is if inflation was actually, say, 35% it means GDP hasn't gone up at all since pre-Covid. It means it actually went down. Implying we've been in recession for nearly 5 years.”

More evidence

If there is one quote that captures how the economy has been perceived these past few years, it is Groucho Marx's "who ya gonna believe, me or your own eyes?"

Regime pundits have admonished consumers, whose sentiment has remained poor amid rosy official numbers. The disconnect supports St. Onge's thesis that the data we are being presented with is no longer reliable.

Marathon Digital announces alt-coin mining

Since September, Marathon Digital has mined $16 million worth of Kaspa (KAS) "to diversify from bitcoin." Despite this move, Marathon states that Kaspa activities account for 1% of its energy capacity, maintaining its primary focus on bitcoin.

What is Kaspa?

Kaspa is a new alt-coin that uses the GhostDAG protocol and aims to "solve" the blockchain trilemma of security, scalability, and decentralization. Though it shares similarities with bitcoin (proof of work, fixed supply), readers should be wary of such new projects. Read this in-depth article by Matthew Kratter to learn more.

📉 Bitcoin’s exchange rate takes a hit from Mt. Gox, government selling

Bitcoin fell below $58,000 for the first time since May, dipping 5% in just 24 hours. The drop followed renewed activity in dormant Mt. Gox wallets, suggesting that asset distributions may be increasing selling pressure. In addition, the German Federal Criminal Police Office transferred over $75 million worth of bitcoin to exchanges, fueling speculation and contributing to the sell-off.

BITCOIN ADOPTION CONTINUES

Former President Trump is in talks to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville in late July, emphasizing his support for the industry.

After acquiring Amber Japan, Sony is launching a bitcoin and crypto exchange in Japan, rebranded as S.BLOX.

Northern Data AG, Europe's largest bitcoin miner, plans a $16 billion IPO in the US by mid-2025, focusing on AI and cloud computing alongside bitcoin mining.

Breez released its SDK Core v0.5.0 with new features like Greenlight signer upgrade, pending state for closed channels, and improved webhook and LNURL support.

CleanSpark surpassed its mid-year hashrate target of 20 EH/s with Georgia facility acquisitions, boosting June bitcoin production by 6.7%.

HOW BITCOIN WORKS

Learn one key idea about bitcoin each week. This week:

The speculative attack lives on.

Ten years ago today, Pierre Rochard's wrote the legendary essay "Speculative Attack" arguing that borrowing fiat to buy bitcoin would drive bitcoin's price up over the long term. The only limitation to this rise would be the speed at which information about bitcoin could be disseminated.

Though it seemed outlandish to most at the time, Rochard's thesis has been validated. Since the article was written, bitcoin’s dollar exchange rate has increased by over 9000%.

The strategy is especially compelling in countries with weaker currencies, where returns can be even more significant. As fiat currencies deteriorate and central banks print more money, the demand for bitcoin as a safe haven grows.

As Allen Farrington and Rochard illustrate in a newly released follow up essay, the speculative attack lives on. They write,

Fiat is in far worse shape today than it was ten years ago. Debt/GDP ratios globally have marched upwards. Deficits have spiraled. Banks have failed, as have entire financial markets, on occasion. A yet-more-deranged-still version of Chartalism has emerged in academia to explain why all of this is actually a good thing. Roughly one third of all dollars in existence have been printed in the past four years, never mind ten. As usual, the dollar’s reserve currency status means its inflation can largely be exported, and hence weaker currencies are almost all in even worse shape. The list goes on. It becomes clearer and clearer every passing day that none of this can ever be fixed. The necessary political will simply does not exist, and it is unlikely it ever could.

The second reason is perhaps more intriguing: the avenues for attack have widened. Speculative Attack originally focused on the relatively simple “trade” of borrowing in an inflating currency to invest in a harder one. Over the past ten years it has become clear that fiat is utterly out of control in leaking de facto monetary premia into practically every asset class in existence. In other words, there are short dollar positions everywhere, almost all of which are involuntary. More suggestively, there are orders of magnitude more dollar shorts looking for a long than there is Bitcoin looking for a hodler.

Eventually, the strategy will fizzle out once no one is willing to trade their bitcoin for dollars. For now, however, the speculative attack continues..

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COIN CHECK

What is the term for the smallest unit of bitcoin?

1. Microbitcoin

2. Milibit

3. Satoshi

4. Nanobit

Check your answer at the end of the page.

FROM THE MEME POOL

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ANSWER

3. Satoshi. Learn more about the sat symbol, the symbol for this unit of currency, here.

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