🌉 The Settlement Layer 🛳️

From ceasefire settlements to Wall Street ETFs, bitcoin is the foundation

BITCOIN BOX SCORE

Exchange Rate: $73,130
Market Capitalization: $1.46T
Hash Rate (90 days): 981.6 EH/s
Transactions (30 days): 15, 768,291
Network Fees (economy): 1 sat/vB
Bitcoin Dominance: 59.71%

On the same day the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, with Tehran reportedly demanding its Strait of Hormuz toll be paid in bitcoin, Morgan Stanley launched a spot bitcoin ETF with the lowest expense ratio in the market, which Morgan Stanley’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy, Amy Oldenburg, is calling their “best ever launch.”

Let that sink in! Two warring nations may settle a peace deal using bitcoin while one of the oldest investment banks on Wall Street rushes to package it for retirees. Whether or not bitcoin factors in to the war in Iran, that it was even considered is a sign of things to come. This is what “product-market fit” looks like. Bitcoin is the asset that both enemies and institutions converge on when trust breaks down, and alternatives fall short, because it is neutral and it works.

The dollar can be weaponized, and gold cannot be moved quickly, safely, and cheaply. Stablecoins can be frozen by centralized institutions just like dollars can be. Bitcoin is the only neutral settlement layer that no government controls, no intermediary can censor, and no sanctions regime can block. Bitcoin is now part of the vocabulary of geopolitical negotiation.

Morgan Stanley bitcoin ETF draws $34 million on day one

Morgan Stanley's spot bitcoin ETF, MSBT, debuted with more than 1.6 million shares traded and $34 million in first-day inflows. At a 0.14% expense ratio, it is the least expensive product in its category.

Wall Street's distribution machine meets bitcoin

Morgan Stanley's vast wealth management network oversees trillions in client assets. As more investors access bitcoin through their financial advisors rather than direct trading platforms, MSBT could funnel significant capital into bitcoin from a demographic that has been on the sidelines.

U.S. Treasury opens cybersecurity intel sharing to bitcoin firms

The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced it will extend its cybersecurity threat-sharing program to bitcoin companies, offering the same protections previously reserved for traditional financial institutions. The move follows recommendations from the President's Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.

Bitcoin is critical financial infrastructure now

When the Treasury Department treats bitcoin firms like banks for the purposes of national security information sharing, it is no longer debating whether bitcoin belongs in the financial system. It is actively protecting it as a pillar of that system.

New bitcoin ETF chases gains that come while Wall Street sleeps

The Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF launched under the ticker NGHT, buying bitcoin at market close and selling before the open while rotating into Treasuries during the day. Since January 2024, overnight price gaps in bitcoin ETFs have generated roughly 200% gains, outpacing the returns of a buy-and-hold spot ETF strategy.

Bitcoin never sleeps; tradfi is trying to keep up

The fact that a dedicated financial product now exists to capture bitcoin's overnight gains is a testament to the asset's unique global trading profile. Bitcoin trades around the clock across every time zone, and the tradfi market is beginning to build infrastructure around that reality.

Even a 1% bitcoin allocation can drastically reshape portfolio risk, Schwab finds

A new research note from Charles Schwab found that bitcoin allocations as low as 1% to 3% can meaningfully reshape portfolio dynamics, with historical drawdowns exceeding 70%. Schwab outlined a "risk budget" framework, shifting focus from return forecasts to how much volatility an investor is willing to tolerate.

The Overton window moves again

Schwab is no longer telling clients to avoid bitcoin – it is telling them to think carefully about how much they want. That framing, from one of the world's largest brokerages, matters. Bitcoin is no longer a question of "if" but "how much."

BITCOIN ADOPTION CONTINUES

Japan's Metaplanet acquired 5,075 bitcoins in Q1, bringing total holdings to 40,177 and surpassing MARA Holdings to become the third-largest corporate bitcoin holder globally.

Academic research confirmed that a quantum 51% attack on bitcoin mining would require roughly the energy output of a star, effectively ruling out the threat with any foreseeable technology.

HOW BITCOIN WORKS

Learn one key idea about bitcoin each week. This week:

Bitcoin as a monetary standard

People often evaluate bitcoin by asking: "Can I buy coffee with it?" That question, while reasonable, may be missing the forest for the trees. It is like judging gold by asking whether you can hand a nugget to a barista, which is also a reasonable question, but has limited explanatory power regarding gold’s use as a monetary asset.

In a recent essay titled "Bitcoin: Money or Monetary Standard?", economist Paul Villegas argues that much of the confusion surrounding bitcoin stems from a "profound categorical confusion." People try to evaluate it as a retail payment tool competing with Visa, or as a government-issued currency competing with the dollar. Villegas proposes a different lens: think of bitcoin not as money, but as a monetary standard — the foundational asset that sits beneath money and gives it credibility.

This is not a new idea. Under the classical gold standard, gold rarely changed hands in daily commerce. Paper notes and bank credit handled everyday purchases. Gold sat in vaults and performed a different job entirely: it settled large obligations between central banks and anchored the system's trust. The paper was convenient. The gold was trustworthy. Both were necessary.

Villegas describes bitcoin as "a strictly inelastic digital standard of value, functionally analogous to physical gold in the financial hierarchy." Its fixed supply of 21 million units, its resistance to seizure, and its independence from any sovereign issuer make it poorly suited for flexible everyday spending—and exceptionally well suited to backing it.

Bitcoin's supply does not expand when demand rises, and that rigidity is what makes it reliable as a foundation. Payment layers like the Lightning Network handle fast, cheap, daily transactions on top of that foundation, just as paper bank notes once circulated above gold reserves.

The qualities that make bitcoin volatile and impractical for buying groceries – absolute scarcity, no counterparty risk, algorithmic predictability – are precisely what make it pristine collateral and a credible reserve asset. This week's headlines illustrate the point. Iran is reportedly considering bitcoin to settle shipping tolls. Morgan Stanley is packaging it for wealth management clients. Neither of them is using bitcoin to buy coffee.

That does not mean bitcoin will never work as a spending medium, because millions of people already use it that way. But Villegas offers a useful mental model: stop comparing bitcoin to your credit card and start comparing it to the vault underneath the bank that issued your credit card.

COIN CHECK

Under the classical gold standard, gold rarely circulated in everyday commerce. Instead, it primarily served as a settlement asset between which institutions?

A. Retail banks and depositors
B. Central banks and sovereign treasuries
C. Stock exchanges and brokerage firms
D. Insurance companies and pension funds

Check your answer at the end of the page.

FROM THE MEME POOL

ANSWER

Answer: B. Central banks and sovereign treasuries. Under the classical gold standard (1880–1914), international balance of payments differences were settled in gold between central banks and treasuries, while paper notes and bank credit handled domestic commerce. Bitcoin is increasingly filling a similar structural role in the digital age, acting as a neutral, final settlement layer rather than a day-to-day spending tool.

That’s all for this week, folks! When you signed up for this newsletter, we promised to act as your personal guide and help you understand what’s happening in the world of bitcoin. What did you think of today’s newsletter? Reply to this email and let us know what you’d like to see more of.

Until next week!

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