Fiscal dominance is here. What is it exactly?

The road goes on forever and the deficits never end.


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Exchange Rate: $68,950
Market Capitalization: $1.36T
Hash Rate (90 days): 567.3 EH/s
Transactions (30 days): 10,684,265
Network Fees (day): 8 sat/vB
Bitcoin Dominance: 54.22%

American fiscal policy now features permanent deficits due to mandatory spending rather than temporary economic downturns.

Lyn Alden calls it "Fiscal Dominance." Dominic Pino calls it "Deficits Forever."

This shift renders traditional notions of fiscal prudence, where budgets are balanced across business cycles, an idea of the past. Since 2002, the government has consistently run deficits, regardless of economic conditions, with projections indicating no reversal in this trend.

At the heart of this predicament is mandatory spending, including entitlements and interest on the debt, which consumes the majority of the budget. This spending, immune to annual legislative adjustments, is on autopilot, limiting discretionary spending and Congress's ability to influence the budget.

The implications are dire: a future where interest payments devour most, if not all, federal revenue, placing the U.S. in a fiscal straitjacket. 

This reality undermines economic sovereignty and burdens generations with unsustainable debt.

Nobody is coming to save us; it is up to individuals to protect themselves from the impending financial crisis.

The time for action is now, as the consequences of inaction grow more severe with each passing day.


Treasury angles for new powers to fight illicit digital asset financing

The U.S. Treasury seeks enhanced authority to combat terror financing, citing the use of cryptocurrency by Iran and Russia-linked entities. Deputy Secretary Adeyemo emphasizes the need for a "secondary sanctions tool" to target overseas digital asset exchanges that facilitate these transactions.

If we can’t have an honest conversation…

Treasury Department officials intentionally neglect to mention that most illicit transactions are conducted using traditional financial rails. See the end of this informative clip where Andrew Ross Sorkin asks Secretary Adeyemo about this – and does not get a straight answer. 

📈 Spot BTC ETFs fast-tracked by Hong Kong Authorities

The Securities Regulatory Commission of Hong Kong is set to accelerate the approval of four spot bitcoin ETFs by April 15. This move, aligning with global trends and increasing institutional interest as evidenced by the U.S. spot ETF inflows, will generate demand as new groups of retail investors can access exposure to bitcoin’s price.

🥵 Inflation is back

Core CPI and overall CPI exhibited significant annualized increases in March, marking the worst inflation in a year for core CPI and since November 2022 for overall CPI. The return of inflation is thought to be driven by persistent inflation in core services despite slight declines in durable goods prices and relatively stable (but high) food prices. This new data dashed the Federal Reserve's hopes to significantly decrease interest rates. Investors now expect only two rate cuts this year, down from as high as six at the beginning of the year.

Rate cuts will still happen – according to President Biden? 🤔

Much of the increase in asset valuations from the past year has been driven by expected interest rate cuts. Since inflation keeps rising, it’s challenging for the Fed to sustain this trend. And, although the Fed is supposedly apolitical, the agency will likely bow to political pressure and put its thumb on the scale to keep the current regime in power, given the unpredictability of what a second Trump term would entail.

In an event that is both remarkable and not at all surprising, President Biden took to his podium to put pressure on the Fed to juice the economy before the election.

Bitcoin halving likely next week

Another bitcoin halving, in which the block reward is halved ever four years, is set to occur next week. Despite expectations of significant declines following previous bitcoin halvings, the upcoming halving is anticipated to result in a modest decrease in hash rate of between 3% and 10%. Bitcoin's high dollar exchange rate and recent technological advancements in mining equipment suggest that, after the halving, we can expect a swift recovery of hashrate and growth thereafter.


Congressman Patrick McHenry emphasized the importance of U.S. leadership in bitcoin at the Bitcoin Policy Summit.

Keystone launched bitcoin-only firmware for its Keystone 3 Pro device, enhancing security and usability features.

"My Trust In You Is Broken," a documentary premiering at the Bitcoin Film Fest, tells the story of BTCPay Server's founding by Nicolas Dorier to promote Bitcoin decentralization and autonomy.

Analysts predict a surge in bitcoin's post-halving dollar exchange rate, with Bitfinex forecasting a 160% increase targeting a range of $150,000 to $169,000.

Early Riders, a sound capital investment firm, announced that it seeks to raise, deploy, and return capital in BTC terms.


Learn one key idea about bitcoin each week. This week:

What is the Halving?

A key component of bitcoin is how it is issued or distributed. Central to this process is the Halving.

Every ten minutes, someone mining bitcoin successfully orders a set of transactions and adds them to the blockchain. They are rewarded with freshly minted bitcoin in return for their expenditure of energy.

The amount bitcoin that is rewarded per block remains consistent for four years at a time. However, every four years, the amount of bitcoin that a miner receives for successfully solving a block cuts in half – knows as the Halving.

A Scheduled Supply Cut

This halving mechanism is integral to bitcoin’s disinflationary monetary policy. Imagine that every four years, the amount of new gold that miners are able to pull out of the ground is cut in half. Would the value of the existing gold in the economy go down, or up?

The Halving serves a key purpose – it ensures a low, and eventually zero, inflation of the supply of bitcoin. Once all bitcoins have been mined, inflation will cease completely, and whatever bitcoin already exists is all that will be available to use. Even still, the amount of bitcoin in circulation will never “run out,” because even a small amount of bitcoin can be divided infinitely.

Key Halving Dates

When the Bitcoin Network began in 2009, miners received a reward of 50 bitcoins per block. In 2013, the first halving occurred, reducing the block reward to 25 bitcoins. 

The mechanism has continued to operate as designed. Today, miners receive a reward of 6.25 bitcoins per block. The next halving, expected to take place next week, will reduce the reward further to 3.125 bitcoins per block.

This process will continue until all bitcoins have been mined. After approximately 34 halvings, new bitcoin issuance will cease, capping the total number of bitcoins in circulation at slightly less than 21 million. Current estimates place the final halving event in the year 2140.

What Happens After the Final Bitcoin is Mined?

Over 90% of bitcoins have already been mined. As the block reward diminishes with each halving event, miners will increasingly rely on transaction fees as the primary incentive for their work.

Following the final halving in 2140, miners will rely only on transaction fees to compensate them for the energy they spend to mine bitcoin. We have already seen a precursor to this phenomenon. At times when the number of bitcoin transactions is high, miners sometimes earn more from transaction fees than the block reward.

This trend indicates that the bitcoin ecosystem can sustain itself via transaction fees alone, ensuring its viability long after the last bitcoin has been mined.

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Approximately how often (in terms of blocks mined) does a bitcoin halving occur?

  1. Every 2,100,000 blocks

  2. Every 210,000 blocks

  3. Every 100,000 blocks

  4. Every 2,100 blocks

Check your answer at the end of the page.



  1. Every 210,000 blocks. This is the reason the exact time of the Halving cannot be predicted. A block is solved roughly, but not exactly, every 10 minutes. The time of the Halving can be predicted within a few hours or days, but the exact time is impossible to know.

That’s all for this week, folks! When you signed up for this newsletter, we promised to act as your personal guide and help you understand what’s happening in the world of bitcoin. What did you think of today’s newsletter? Reply to this email and let us know what you’d like to see more of.

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